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国家自然科学基金(40730106)

作品数:17 被引量:87H指数:7
相关作者:徐永福丹利吴涧李阳春储敏更多>>
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17 条 记 录,以下是 1-10
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近46年西南地区晴天日照时数变化特征及其原因初探被引量:13
2013年
利用1960-2005年西南地区93个气象站晴天日照时数资料,对西南地区晴天日照时数的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)西南地区晴天日照时数呈现盆地地区低、中部山区高的分布,夏季高于冬季,冬季盆地最低值可降到5h·d-1以下。(2)近46年晴天日照时数呈现阶段性的下降趋势,其中年平均、夏季和冬季的趋势系数分别为-0.82,-0.86和-0.79,均通过了0.001的显著性水平检验。(3)西南地区大、中、小城市晴天日照时数的变化特征与整个地区的平均结果基本一致,而且大城市晴天日照时数下降幅度比中小城市要大,年平均日照时数的回归系数分别为-0.25,-0.19和-0.08h·d-1·(10a)-1。(4)西南地区大城市散射辐射与晴天日照时数有较好的对应关系,年平均、夏季和冬季的相关系数分别为-0.726,-0.818和-0.555,均通过了0.001的显著性水平检验。(5)西南地区年平均气溶胶指数呈现盆地地区高、四周低的分布特征,这与晴天日照时数的分布基本一致,而且气溶胶指数在过去27年来主要呈现一个逐年上升的变化趋势,与同期晴天日照时数基本一致。(6)晴天日照时数与同期西南地区GDP存在一定的相关性。
符传博丹利吴涧杨富强郭俊
关键词:散射辐射
二氧化碳在海洋深层水中隔离的数值模拟被引量:7
2009年
随着对大气中二氧化碳浓度的持续增加所产生的潜在全球气候变化问题的认识逐步加深,人们在进一步理解全球碳循环问题的同时,正在寻求遏止大气CO2浓度快速增加的方法。文章在讨论一些可能的途径后,着重探讨了作为其中一种选择的CO2海洋封存的有效性问题。使用北太平洋海洋环流模式,研究了人为隔离CO2在海洋中的行为。在北太平洋中选择了1个位置,在不同的深度人为投放CO2。模拟结果表明,隔离有效性随隔离的深度增加而增加。总的来说,当注入深度超过1500m,其海洋中隔离CO2在50a后仍可达注入量的95%以上。当隔离深度超过2000m后,深度增加对隔离效果的影响变小,50a后的差异均小于1%。
徐永福姜超
关键词:碳循环北太平洋数值模拟
ENSO年代际变化对全球陆地生态系统碳通量的影响被引量:5
2011年
使用动态植被陆面模式AVIM2,以NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)再分析气象资料作为大气强迫场,模拟了1953—2004年全球陆地生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)和净生态系统生产力(NEP)的空间分布及时间变化特征。结果得到,1953—2004年陆地生态系统NPP和NEP全球总量52a的平均值分别为每年65Pg碳和1.2Pg碳,NPP呈明显的上升趋势,而NEP的上升趋势不明显。虽然NPP和NEP的年代际增长趋势不同,但是在20世纪70年代中期,NPP和NEP的年代际变化都出现了一个明显的突变,突变点后的增长趋势都没有之前的增长趋势高。这是由于太平洋的年代际振荡(PDO)冷暖位相影响了厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(El Nin~o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)的年代际变化,对NPP和NEP的年代际变化也产生了重要的影响。1976年以前PDO处于冷位相年,增加了ENSO冷位相的强度和频率,使热带地区的气候偏凉爽湿润,从而利于NPP和NEP趋势增长,而1976年以后PDO进入暖位相年,El Nin~o发生频繁,赤道地区多为干热的气候异常,会降低NPP和NEP的增长趋势。
姜超徐永福季劲钧李阳春
关键词:陆地生态系统净初级生产力
Estimates of Anthropogenic CO_2 Uptake in a Global Ocean Model被引量:7
2009年
A global ocean general circulation model (L30T63) is employed to study the uptake and distribution of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean. A subgrid-scale mixing scheme called GM90 is used in the model. There are two main GM90 parameters including isopycnal diffusivity and skew (thickness) diffusivity. Sensitivities of the ocean circulation and the redistribution of dissolved anthropogenic CO2 to these two parameters are examined. Two runs estimate the global oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake to be 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr^-1 for the 1990s, and that the global ocean contained 86.8 and 92.7 Pg C of anthropogenic CO2 at the end of 1994, respectively. Both the total inventory and uptake from our model are smaller than the data-based estimates. In this presentation, the vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO2 at three meridional sections are discussed and compared with the available data-based estimates. The inventory in the individual basins is also calculated. Use of large isopycnal diffusivity can generally improve the simulated results, including the exchange flux, the vertical distribution patterns, inventory, storage, etc. In terms of comparison of the vertical distributions and column inventory, we find that the total inventory in the Pacific Ocean obtained from our model is in good agreement with the data-based estimate, but a large difference exists in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the South Atlantic. The main reasons are weak vertical mixing and that our model generates small exchange fluxes of anthropogenic CO2 in the Southern Ocean. Improvement in the simulation of the vertical transport and sea ice in the Southern Ocean is important in future work.
徐永福李阳春
1960—2009年北京地区城市化背景下蒸发皿蒸发量的时空变化被引量:9
2011年
利用1960—2009年北京地区20个气象台站的观测资料,分析了北京城区和郊区蒸发皿蒸发量的季节和年际变化趋势和特点,并探讨了城市化对北京地区局地气候的影响。结果表明:近50 a北京地区蒸发量有明显减小趋势,城区和郊区变化趋势分别为-88.1 mm/10a和-76.0 mm/10a。受城市化影响,北京城区蒸发量的变化主要与降水、日照时数、最低气温、气温日较差和平均风速的变化有关;郊区蒸发量的变化主要受相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速和空气饱和差的变化影响。总体而言,相对湿度、日照时数、最低气温、气温日较差和平均风速的变化对北京地区蒸发量的变化有显著影响。
丹利杨富强吴涧
关键词:蒸发皿蒸发量城市化
Influences of Climate Change on the Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic CO_2 in the Global Ocean被引量:1
2012年
A global ocean general circulation model, called LASG/IAP Climate system ocean model (LICOM), is employed to study the influence of climate change on the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO2 in the global ocean. Two simulations were made: the control run (RUN1) with the climatological daily mean forcing data, and the climate change run (RUN2) with the interannually varying daily mean forcing data from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) of the US. The results show that the simulated distributions and storages of anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon (anDIC) from both runs are consistent with the data-based results. Compared with the data-based results, the simulations generate higher anDIC concentrations in the upper layer and lower storage amount of anDIC between the subsurface and 1000-m depth, especially in RUN1. A comparison of the two runs shows that the interannually varying forcing can enhance the transport of main water masses, so the rate of interior transport of anDIC is increased. The higher transfer rate of anDIC in RUN2 decreases its high concentration in the upper layer and increases its storage amount below the subsurface, which leads to closer distributions of anDIC in RUN2 to the data-based results than in RUN1. The higher transfer rate in RUN2 also induces larger exchange flux than in RUN1. It is estimated that the global oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake was 1.83 and 2.16 Pg C yr-1 in the two runs in 1995, respectively, and as of 1994, the global ocean contained 99 Pg C in RUN1 and 107 Pg C in RUN2 of anDIC, indicating that the model under the interannually varying forcing could take up 8.1% more anthropogenic carbon than the model under the climatological forcing. These values are within the range of other estimates based on observation and model simulation, while the estimates in RUN1 are near the low bound of other works. It is estimated that the variability of root mean square of the global air-sea anthropogenic carbon flux from the simulated
李阳春徐永福储敏俞永强
关键词:VARIABILITY
Climate-Vegetation Interannual Variability in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Model被引量:4
2009年
The coupled models of both the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) and the Atmosphere- Vegetation Interaction Model (GOALS-AVIM) are used to study the main characteristics of interannual variations. The simulated results are also used to investigate some significant interannual variability and correlation analysis of the atmospheric circulation and terrestrial ecosystem. By comparing the simulations of the climate model GOALS-AVIM and GOALS, it is known that the simulated results of the interannual variations of the spatial and temporal distributions of the surface air temperatures and precipitation are generally improved by using AVIM in GOALS-AVIM. The interannual variation displays some distinct characteristics of the geographical distribution. Both the Net Primary Production (NPP) and the Leap Area Index (LAI) have quasi 1-2-year cycles. Meanwhile, precipitation and the surface temperatures have 2-4- year cycles. Conditions when the spectrum density values of GOALS are less than those of GOALS-AVIM, tell us that the model coupled with AVIM enhances the simulative capability for interannual variability and makes the annual cycle variability more apparent. Using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis, the relationship between the ecosystem and the atmospheric circulation in East Asia is explored. The result shows that the strengthening and weakening of the East Asian monsoon, characterized by the geopotential heights at 500 hPa and the wind fields at 850 hPa, correspond to the spatiotemporal pattern of the NPP. The correlation between NPP and the air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation are different in interannual variability because of the variation in vegetation types.
智海王盘兴丹利俞永强徐永福郑伟鹏
区域海洋模式中的开边界问题被引量:4
2009年
储敏徐永福
关键词:海洋环流模式物理过程参数化方法
Uptake and Storage of Anthropogenic CO_2 in the Pacific Ocean Estimated Using Two Modeling Approaches被引量:9
2012年
A basin-wide ocean general circulation model (OGCM) of the Pacific Ocean is employed to estimate the uptake and storage of anthropogenic CO2 using two different simulation approaches. The simulation (named BIO) makes use of a carbon model with biological processes and full thermodynamic equations to calculate surface water partial pressure of CO2, whereas the other simulation (named PTB) makes use of a perturbation approach to calculate surface water partial pressure of anthropogenic CO2. The results from the two simulations agree well with the estimates based on observation data in most important aspects of the vertical distribution as well as the total inventory of anthropogenic carbon. The storage of anthropogenic carbon from BIO is closer to the observation-based estimate than that from PTB. The Revelle factor in 1994 obtained in BIO is generally larger than that obtained in PTB in the whole Pacific, except for the subtropical South Pacific. This, to large extent, leads to the difference in the surface anthropogenic CO2 concentration between the two runs. The relative difference in the annual uptake between the two runs is almost constant during the integration processes after 1850. This is probably not caused by dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), but rather by a factor independent of time. In both runs, the rate of change in anthropogenic CO2 fluxes with time is consistent with the rate of change in the growth rate of atmospheric partial pressure of CO2.
李阳春徐永福
关键词:FLUX
新疆地区雪深和雪压的分布及其55年的变化特征分析被引量:10
2011年
本文主要使用新疆地区109个气象站观测资料,对新疆地区雪深和雪压的分布和变化特征以及相关气象因子进行了系统分析,结果表明:新疆地区的积雪多年平均表现为北部多于南部,其中雪深和雪压最大值出现在新疆北部,数值分别为10 cm和10 g/cm^2.新疆积雪的季节特征较为明显,其中2月份积雪最大,雪深和雪压分别为9.2 cm和5.4 g/cm^2.冬季雪深和雪压最大值出现在新疆北部,到了春季有较大幅度的下降.新疆积雪的55年来的年际变化主要经历了较大幅度下降,而后呈波动式缓慢上升的过程,其中20世纪60年代是积雪最小的时期,呈波动式缓慢上升的趋势在冬季更为明显.较大幅度下降主要发生在50年代末到60年代初之间,其中年平均雪深和雪压的下降分别为2.53 cm和2.34 g/cm^2,冬季相应分别为4.41 cm和3.6 g/cm^2.对气象影响因子的地理分布特征分析表明,降水量表现为从西北向东部逐渐减小的特征,且和积雪成正的空间相关关系,其中冬季的相关系数最高,分别为0.82(雪深)和0.56(雪压).地面气温的分布特征为南高北低型,而且和积雪成负的空间相关关系,55年平均的相关系数最高,分别为-0.47(雪深)和-0.35(雪压).55年平均日照时数分布特征为西低东高型,东部最高能达到9.4hour/day.气象影响因子的年际变化趋势表明,降水量和年平均地面气温均有明显的上升趋势,其中年平均降水的增长率达到了1.36 mm·(10a)^(-1) ,年平均日照时数在60年代以后表现为明显下降的趋势.时间相关系数分析表明,雪深和雪压与降水量成正相关关系,与地面气温和日照时数成负相关关系,其中与降水量的相关系数最高,分别为0.401(雪深)和0.493(雪压),均通过了99%的信度检验.
符传博丹利吴涧魏荣庆
关键词:雪深雪压气温降水日照时数
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